Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.103952 0.117045 0.131180 0.147580 0.166091 0.186350 0.210215
2025-12-14 0.078969 0.095281 0.114162 0.137655 0.166140 0.199606 0.241981
2025-12-21 0.061817 0.079415 0.101116 0.129898 0.167154 0.213874 0.277104
2025-12-28 0.051505 0.070169 0.094595 0.128995 0.176363 0.239545 0.330646
2026-01-04 0.042319 0.060913 0.086641 0.124982 0.180946 0.260083 0.381264
2026-01-11 0.035800 0.054276 0.081220 0.123585 0.188949 0.286673 0.445181
2026-01-18 0.030997 0.049357 0.077500 0.124062 0.199795 0.319204 0.523868
2026-01-25 0.025692 0.042819 0.070316 0.118024 0.199551 0.334666 0.578588
2026-02-01 0.021257 0.036977 0.063339 0.111173 0.196821 0.345629 0.627847
2026-02-08 0.018112 0.032815 0.058517 0.107192 0.198324 0.363998 0.693466
2026-02-15 0.015459 0.029107 0.053919 0.102852 0.198440 0.379867 0.757374
2026-02-22 0.013949 0.027264 0.052411 0.104004 0.209053 0.417027 0.869440
2026-03-01 0.011961 0.024252 0.048354 0.099771 0.208838 0.433983 0.945854
2026-03-08 0.010489 0.022042 0.045537 0.097603 0.212554 0.459755 1.046660
2026-03-15 0.009242 0.020098 0.042968 0.095543 0.216199 0.486156 1.154637
2026-03-22 0.008508 0.019137 0.042316 0.097568 0.229309 0.535861 1.327344
2026-03-29 0.007636 0.017732 0.040483 0.096609 0.235387 0.570603 1.471307
2026-04-05 0.006975 0.016709 0.039356 0.097134 0.245169 0.616089 1.652577
2026-04-12 0.006458 0.015947 0.038721 0.098760 0.258041 0.671731 1.873132
2026-04-19 0.005691 0.014453 0.036095 0.094912 0.256074 0.688855 1.991631
2026-04-26 0.004974 0.012974 0.033286 0.090114 0.250724 0.696061 2.083713
2026-05-03 0.004447 0.011908 0.031372 0.087413 0.250721 0.718128 2.225283
2026-05-10 0.003964 0.010885 0.029416 0.084272 0.248914 0.734811 2.354426